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next move In Livermore s later life, whenever he deduced that a change was coming, and he wasn t sure exactly when or how severe the change might be, he cashed in all his positions and waited Second, it is the change in the major trend that hurts most speculators They simply get caught invested in the wrong direction, on the wrong side of the market To determine if you are right in your appraisal that a change in market trend may be coming use small position probes by placing small orders, either buy or sell, depending on the direction of the trend change you anticipate occurring This will test the correctness of your judgment.

12 Growing Insecurities Economist, January 17, 2009, p 73 13 The Treasury would create an Of ce of National Insurance with the responsibility to monitor all aspects of the US insurance industry and to coordinate with international insurance regulators Treasury White Paper, supra note 11, pp 39 40 14 Beth Healy, Markopolos: SEC s regional turf tiffs hampered case Boston Globe, February 5, 2009 wwwbostoncom/business/articles/2009/02/05/markopolos_secs_regional_turf_ tiffs_hampered_case/ 15 Marcy Gordon Associated Press, Schapiro Pledges Toughness at SEC Washington Times, January 16, 2009, wwwwashingtontimescom/news/2009/jan/16/crisis-of-on dence/ 16 Neil A Simon, Finra had authority to examine Madoff s rm InvestmentNewscom, January 18, 2009 online edition at investmentnewscom 17 David Scheer and Jesse Westbrook, Madoff Tragedy Said to Have Escaped Scrutiny by the SEC Bloombergcom, December 15, 2008 18 Ibid 19 Joanna Chung, SEC to enlist help on fraud Financial Times, April 1, 2009, p 15 20.

By sending out exploratory orders and investing real money, you will get the signal that the trend is changing because each stock purchase will be at a cheaper price than the prior purchase the signal prices are dropping time to go short The trader s job is to continually observe the tape and to interpret the tape as a person would look at a movie with no two frames exactly the same No two markets are ever exactly the same, but they all have similar traits, like humans These individual messages must be extracted from the tape and run through your brain in a rapid fashion The stock market always follows the line of least resistance until it meets with an at- rst almost imperceptible force that slowly, but inexorably, stops its upward or downward momentum.

SEC Press Release 2009-109, May 14, 2009 21 Financial Planning Association vs SEC, 482 F2d 481 (DC Circuit 2007) 22 Rand Institute for Civil Justice, Investor and Industry Perspectives on Investment Advisers and Broker-Dealers Sponsored by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), January 3, 2008 wwwsecgov/news/press/2008/2008-1_randiabdreportpdf 23 See Treasury White Paper, supra note 11, pp 71 72 24 See, for example, Testimony of Robert Kuttner before the Committee on Financial Services US House of Representatives, Washington DC October 2, 2007, http:// nancialserviceshousegov/hearing110/testimony_-_kuttnerpdf 25 12 USC 24 (seventh) 26 Federal Reserve Notice, Docket No R-0841, Revenue Limit on Bank Ineligibile Activities of Subsidiaries of Bank Holding Companies Engaged in Underwriting and Dealing in Securities December 20, 1996, wwwfederalreservegov/boarddocs/press/ boardacts/1996/19961220/R-0841pdf .

The increased amount of underwriting permitted over time arose from changing interpretations of the phrase engaged principally in securities business 27 Alex Tabarrok, Glass Steagall: The Real History Marginal Revolutions, September 19, 2008, wwwmarginalrevolutioncom/marginalrevolution/2008/09/glass-steagallhtml 28 Eugene White, 1986, Before the Glass-Steagall Act: An Analysis of the Investment Activities of National Banks Explorations in Economic History 23, January, 1986, pp 33 55 29 Randall S Kroszner and Raghuram G Rajan, Is the Glass-Steagall Act Justi ed : Evidence from the US Experience with Universal Banking 1921-1933 American Economic Review, 1994, vol 84, pp 810 832Available on professor Rajan s web site http://facultychicagobooth edu/raghuramrajan/research/papers/randy1pdf..

It is at these key junctures recognizing the Reversal Pivotal Points being able to identify them and not be confused by natural reactions or the appearance of Continuation Pivotal Points that the real money is made Just as the panics always encouraged Livermore to go long when things looked the bleakest, conversely, when everything looked perfect and blissful, it occurred to him that it might be time to go short He tried to see this before everyone else did That is why he kept his own counsel in silence and avoided, whenever possible, talking to anyone who might alter his thinking Sometimes, Livermore accumulated his line of stocks at what he believed to be the turning point in a great decline or at the crest of a mighty upward wave.

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